Polyus, Russia’s largest gold producer, is planning to boost its free-float (FF) to 25–30%, CFO Mikhail Stiskin said in an interview July 1. An additional increase in free float by 5% will draw $19 mln in passive funds (four times the average daily turnover) because Polyus weight in MSCI Russia will increase by 0.28% to 1.4%; the inflow from active customers may be even greater. Rise in free float by 10% from current levels will contribute to an inflow of $29 mln in passive funds, six times the daily turnover, the company’s weight in MSCI Russia will grow by 0.55%, to 1.67%. If free-float is increased by the end of July, the changes will be announced August 8 following the quarterly index review and implemented as of the close of August 29. Alternatively, the changes may be announced following the semi-annual index review on November 7 and will be implemented on November 27.
We believe that Polyus still has a strong upside potential till the year’s end (+ 10%), given our gold price outlook for the year’s end of $1,500/oz due to expectations of lower key rates.
The upside from the idea initiation (6071 roubles per share) till the year’s end is 10%.
Passive inflow estimate:
